It’s too much. I don’t like getting in front of a speeding train in either direction.
One thing to keep reminding people of are these theories of investing:
- It’s OK to (probable you will) miss the bottom. Bernard Baruch said, “I always bought too late and sold too soon.” Well, he died with $100 million in the bank, all made from investing.
- There are going to be opportunities for the next six months at least. Don’t worry.
- Volatility is not your friend unless you are a daytrader. Yes, buy when there’s blood in the streets. Sometimes. But don’t think we can call a bottom or a top.
Basically, find good companies that are undervalued and invest in them. That’s the only rule. There are 8,000 public companies. Even if a few of them go back to highs quickly, most of them won’t.
There will also be many companies that have done surprisingly well during this time that we currently have no clue about.
Why is the market up today? Because the world is finally seeing what we’ve been talking about in this letter for the past three weeks. Everything is starting to happen:
- Hospitalizations in N.Y.C. (the bulk of US cases) are down, down, down.
- The virus is contagious when you are around people A LOT who have it. This calls into question some of the more stringent social distancing guidelines, which might lead to better future policy that doesn’t lead to economic shutdown.
- Cases are down in Italy and Spain.
- California and Washington, two big hotspots for the virus, are RETURNING ventilators. They don’t need them! I thought the ICUs would be overflowing. Well, they aren’t.
So the market is up.
Go take a walk outside and get some sunshine.
By the way, guess which stock went up the most after EVERY single hurricane in the past 30 years (and will probably do well after this crisis as well)?
Campbell’s Soup (CPB).