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How to Spot a Second Wave or New Pandemic in the Future

A few weeks ago, I asked if anyone had COVID-19. A bunch of people responded and said they thought they ALREADY had it in January/February. My guess is this pandemic started in…

A few weeks ago, I asked if anyone had COVID-19. A bunch of people responded and said they thought they ALREADY had it in January/February. My guess is this pandemic started in N.Y.C. in late January. The attached graphic shows people who showed up at the ER in NY hospitals over the past few months […]

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My Take on the Unemployment Numbers

The news is bad, but never as bad as they want you to believe.  I try not to put any spin. But often people (usually reporters) think I’m trying to be “contrarian”…

The news is bad, but never as bad as they want you to believe.  I try not to put any spin. But often people (usually reporters) think I’m trying to be “contrarian” or “positive” for the heck of it.  That’s not it at all. There are some things I’m quite pessimistic about (my ability to […]

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When Will This End?

There’s been data flying back and forth.  Every university has a “model.” Every health official. Everybody on Twitter who in their spare time became a pandemic expert.  Let’s look at some of…

There’s been data flying back and forth.  Every university has a “model.” Every health official. Everybody on Twitter who in their spare time became a pandemic expert.  Let’s look at some of the models out there.  The below model was considered by many to be the standard. Six days ago it projected that in New […]

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What Will the New Normal Look Like?

I have never seen so much uncertainty in my life.  There’s uncertainty about:  Health: How bad will this virus get worldwide? I’ve addressed this in my posts, and in my Instagram Lives…

I have never seen so much uncertainty in my life.  There’s uncertainty about:  Health: How bad will this virus get worldwide? I’ve addressed this in my posts, and in my Instagram Lives every day at 2 p.m., by looking at all the data and talking to the experts.  My own view is that the pandemic […]

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Some Positive News for the Markets and This Virus

I’ve worked in the news industry. The news industry (not all, but a lot) is filled with angry, bitter people who want you to be as angry and bitter and miserable as…

I’ve worked in the news industry. The news industry (not all, but a lot) is filled with angry, bitter people who want you to be as angry and bitter and miserable as them.  They type their headlines: “BLAH BLAH DEATHS BLAH BLAH BLAH MISERY!!!!” And they joke around how shitty their bosses are and how […]

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My Top 13 Rules for Profitable Trading in Any Market

[Editor’s note: The below article was written by my colleague, Bob Byrne. Some of you may already be familiar with his work. For more information, see his bio at the bottom of…

[Editor’s note: The below article was written by my colleague, Bob Byrne. Some of you may already be familiar with his work. For more information, see his bio at the bottom of the article.] During my first week trading, all I could do was stare at my desk. Phone numbers covered every inch of my […]

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Could Pandemic Peak in 2–3 Weeks?

For the past month on my podcast and on my Instagram Lives and on Twitter, I’ve been begging people to be rational.  I said:  “This virus has a lifespan of about three…

For the past month on my podcast and on my Instagram Lives and on Twitter, I’ve been begging people to be rational.  I said:  “This virus has a lifespan of about three months. Which would imply a peak in the U.S. of around April 15, give or take (and might be different per city).” “Less […]

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