Biden vs. Lettuce (The Truth)
It’s July 19, 2024.
200,000 people are watching a livestream to see if a head of lettuce would outlive Joe Biden.
As usual, news outlets missed approximately one million opportunities for lettuce puns. (It was, after all, the ultimate test for Biden’s ability to romaine calm under pressure.)
But hidden behind the leaves was a story of a new kind of market emerging - one fit for the age of information.
Yes, I’m talking about the growing influence of prediction markets.
More on that in a moment.
Lettuce Liz
For the record, this meme first started across the pond.
During the 2022 Liz Truss admin in the UK, a running joke emerged that the shelf life of a head of lettuce would outlast her government.
On 18 October 2022, the Daily Star further ran a headline titled "Lettuce Liz on Leaf Support" .
As the livestream continued, a pair of googly eyes and a blonde wig were put on the lettuce, followed by fake feet and hands and glasses.
Alas for Liz…
The lettuce claimed victory.
Inspired by this, the Biden bet began on Friday July 19, as the pressure mounted for Biden to step aside.
This time, it was on Polymarket, the crypto prediction betting site. Now, I have yet to confirm this for myself…
But the running assumption was that a head of lettuce typically lasts about 10 days.
Biden didn’t make it that long.
He announced his withdrawal from the race on July 22nd, well before the July 28th deadline.
Interestingly…
Traditional media was still debating Biden's fitness for office while prediction markets were already pricing in his withdrawal.
While silly on first glance…
It's a sign that prediction markets are gaining popularity - and ready to harvest some serious profits.
A Crypto Story
Indeed, Polymarket isn't just about elections.
Users are betting on everything from sporting events and legal outcomes to Fed rate decisions and even who the next James Bond will be.
This reveals the potential for prediction markets to become a go-to source for forecasting across multiple domains. If you’re going to invest in the “picks and shovels” of prediction markets, crypto is a good place to look.
Consider why.
Immutability: Blockchain ensures that once a prediction is made, it can't be altered. No more disputes over who said what when.
Transparency: Every transaction is visible on the blockchain. You can't hide bad bets or manipulate the market behind closed doors.
Accessibility: Got $10 and an internet connection? Congratulations, you're now a player in the global prediction market. A farmer in India can bet on U.S. election outcomes if they think they have insight. (Obviously, crypto regulations are the bottleneck for now.)
Smart Contracts: These automate payouts based on outcomes. No middlemen, no delays, no disputes.
Now, the big question.
How to Invest
Thing is, the growth of prediction markets is closely tied to the growth of blockchain.
And the intersection of crypto and prediction markets is one area you aren’t going to want to ignore.
→ Crypto has about 500 million users around the world. No small number.
→ Ethereum-based prediction markets have shown transaction costs as low as 1% of the traditional betting industry.
Our Early Stage Crypto Investor readers have one way to play the rise of prediction markets.
(If you’re a member, you’ll see more info on that in today’s weekly ESC update.)
We’re also keeping our eyes peeled for other opportunities in this space.
Stay tuned.
