Oops… ASML’s Earnings Just Leaked

Oops…

ASML’s earnings results got posted on the company’s website earlier today, despite a scheduled earning release date of Oct. 16.

The link was quickly removed, but not before investors reacted to an apparent disappointing forecast from the company.

According to FactSet, ASML’s 2025 total net sales are now forecast to be between 30 - 35 billion euros, versus a consensus estimate of 35.8 billion euros.

ASML makes the machinery and software used in manufacturing semiconductors.

Its customers include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Samsung Electronics, and Intel.

As I type this, ASML’s stock is down 16%.

Nvidia (NVDA) is also down 5% on the news.

Here’s the blurb in ASML’s press release that’s sending stock prices lower:

"While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness."

The link that investors are piecing together is: ASML makes the equipment used to make semiconductors => their earnings are weaker than expected => so demand for semiconductors must be weaker than expected.

The issue is that ASML operates in multiple markets – some stronger than others.

Logic and Memory are the two markets taking longer to recover, according to ASML’s press release.

This is bad news for Micron, who is a leader in this space.

Nvidia, on the other hand, operates in the AI market, which according to ASML’s press release continues to show “strong developments and upside potential.”

We know this is the case through other sources as well:

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in an interview that demand for the company’s next-generation artificial intelligence chip Blackwell is “insane.”
• OpenAI’s COO recently said the company will spend the majority of its $6.6 billion fundraising round on compute power from Nvidia.
• AMD’s CEO Lisa Su just said the total addressable market for data center AI acceleration “will grow at more than 60% annually to $500 billion in 2028,” driven by AI demand that has been growing beyond expectations.

As a trader, I love situations like these.

A stock that I love is trading lower on news completely irrelevant to its business – similar to a “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” type situation.

If you’re looking for an opportunity to get into NVDA before the company reports earnings in a few weeks, this is a great opportunity.

The AI freight train is not stopping anytime soon. We’ve got plenty of sources backing this up – including ASML’s own press release.

Yet, NVDA is trading 5% lower today…

All because somebody hit the “post” button on ASML’s earnings results by accident.

Funny how things work out.