This Election is NOT What You Think

I just recorded a podcast on the election.

I called it “This Election is NOT What You Think”.

First off, I want to be clear - I'm trying to bring a neutral perspective here. There's so much bias in the media, whether it's CNN, MSNBC, or Fox, and I'm honestly disgusted by it.

I just want to cut through the BS and get to the facts.

That debate between Biden and Trump? Everyone saw it. It was rough. Biden clearly wasn't the same guy we saw in 2020, let alone 2008 or 1988.

There’s a lot of conspiracy theories surrounding the debate and what happened next.

Let’s run through the main ones… and then I’ll give you my prediction for later this month.

(Or you can listen to the podcast.)

Five Conspiracy Theories

The first one’s about the debate.

Conspiracy theory #1: Democrats engineered the pre-convention debate to showcase Biden's decline.

Or at least, this was a “test run” to see if they should pull Biden. This is plausible.

As far as I know, there’s never been a 1-on-1 debate before the conventions. Weird.

Conspiracy theory #2: Biden's COVID diagnosis was conveniently timed to provide an excuse for his exit.

The timing is suspicious, but doesn't mean it was orchestrated.

Conspiracy theory #3: Joe Biden is actually dead.

Joe Biden is not dead.

But, despite what some say, everyone knew Biden was declining. Everyone. This wasn't some big secret.

I remember conversations I had with insiders back in 2020 where they were saying, "Yeah, we know he's not as sharp, but he's got a strong bench."

We all knew.

Conspiracy theory #4: The $100 million in Biden's campaign account.

The idea here is that the Democrats realized they needed Kamala. That's why the party unified behind her so quickly.

Remember, Biden initially dropped out without endorsing Harris. He then made a separate statement a few hours later endorsing her.

Kamala Harris was already legally listed on the account documents, making her the easiest path to accessing these funds.

Once someone is in charge of this account, the money can also be used to support local elections. Many Democrats are hoping to get a piece of this funding for their own races.

Of course, there are other reasons for endorsing Harris.

Conspiracy theory #5: They wanted to avoid uncertainty.

Markets hate uncertainty. Same with campaigns.

Think about precedents. Forget about LBJ in '68 or Truman in '52. People talk a lot about them when they talk about ‘24.

But this is more like 1972 with McGovern and Eagleton.

George McGovern won the Democratic nomination in 1972.

He chose Thomas Eagleton as his running mate. Shortly after, it was revealed Eagleton had received electroshock therapy for depression.

McGovern initially stood by Eagleton, then asked him to step down.

The current situation with Biden stepping down after essentially securing the nomination creates uncertainty similar to the McGovern-Eagleton shake-up.

Uncertainty in a presidential ticket can be very damaging to a campaign. That’s another reason they rallied behind Harris so quickly.

Now, Harris was on hook to choose her running mate by August 15th due to Ohio's ballot deadline. Looks like she made her choice. (More on that later.)

But you know what else? This could be like 1892.

If Trump wins, he'll be the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms. And just like Cleveland was fighting inflation then, Trump's got his own economic battles now - inflation being one of them.

What about RFK Jr.? He's pulling from both sides, but probably not enough to make a real difference. Unless we end up with another Florida 2000 situation, he's likely just a footnote.

Looking at the prediction markets, Trump's still in the lead.

But don't get too stuck on one scenario - these numbers are going to bounce around.

Here's what I predict will happen.

From August 19th to August 22nd is the Democratic National Convention. We’re going to see high-profile speeches at the Democratic Convention, likely including Kamala Harris, her VP pick, Barack Obama, and possibly Joe Biden.

After that, Harris will see an increase in support following the convention. A groundswell of support like this almost always happens after a convention.

But she needs to ditch that "I'm with her" slogan. It didn't work for Hillary, and recycling failed strategies is never a good move.

Robert Cialdini and Scott Adams talk about how Clinton's change in slogans in 2016 (from focusing on Trump's potential misuse of power to "I'm with her") coincided with a decline in her polling numbers.

In the end, we're in for a ride.

Stay tuned, keep your BS detectors on high alert.

And hey, if nothing else, at least we're all getting a crash course in obscure presidential history.

Check out the full podcast here.